A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
